The political underpinnings of global economic integration are fragile: the US is on the verge of what may ultimately prove the most significant defeat in its history; an attack on Iran looks possible; and North Korea has become a nuclear power. Above all, we live in a world marked by shifting relative power and religious and political turmoil in much of the Islamic world.

The big question then is not whether there will be some correction- even, at worst, a US recession - this year. The world economy should be able to survive such a jolt, provided its underlying dynamism remains in place. What matters far more is the future of  economic globalisation. On that we can hope, but can not be overconfident. Its viability will depend on wise leadership -acommodity, as usual, in  extremely small supply.

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