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The long slump in China
Feb 27th 2008 | HONG KONG
From Economist.com

◆(1)CHINESE investors had a rare opportunity for good cheer on Wednesday February 27th. The country's two stock exchanges shrugged off Monday's blues, when both indices dropped by about 4%, and gained a bit instead. Unfortunately Monday is far more typical of trading conditions in recent months in the country's two markets, in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Despite the power of China's interventionist government, the importance of maintaining appearances for the Olympics and the country's relatively strong economic growth, China's stock markets have been suffering from a protracted slide.

◆(2)Shanghai is already down by more than a third since October last year. A fall of this severity, had it happened elsewhere, would have already prompted the word "crash" to circulate. But the collapse has sent out few tremors and little nervous talk. There are several reasons why this is so. Foremost, foreign participation in the Chinese market has been strictly curtailed. As a result global losses are limited and so news of the financial destruction that has accompanied the massive share-price losses has failed to stir interest beyond the country's borders.

◆(3)Exactly a year ago a 9% tumble of Shanghai's stock market sent a shockwave around the world that knocked a couple of percentage points off the Dow Jones Industrial Average in a matter of seconds. Now, perhaps, with damage spreading through the global credit markets, there is a sense that there are bigger things to worry about.

◆(4)There are also reasons to believe that the losses-in excess of $1 trillion-are not as devastating as they first appear. Much of the capitalisation of the Chinese markets is tied up in shares held by the government, so whatever the extent of the losses, less than half has been borne by private investors. China has a huge number of brokerage accounts-upwards of 115m and 70,000 new ones are established every day-but many are inactive. And unlike in many Western countries, the stock market appears to play a relatively small role in providing capital for companies, with bank loans and retained earnings statistically far more important.

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